Yemeni raids throw al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula off balance

Analysis by Camille Tawil in London
For Al-Shorfa.com
2010-01-25

[MARWAN NAAMANI/AFP/Getty Images] Yemen's security forces have relentlessly attacked al-Qaeda recently.

Over the past few weeks, the Yemeni government dealt heavy blows to al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) by targeting a number of its key leaders and training camps in different regions of the country.

Even though it is too early to predict the outcome of this confrontation between al-Qaeda and the administration of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, for now it seems that the Yemeni government succeeded in scoring several blows against al-Qaeda, which appeared over the past few days to be struggling to respond.

The "disappearance" of many of its best known leaders and the inability of the organisation to strike back provided strong indications that al-Qaeda has been off-kilter.

Toward the end of December, the Yemeni government intensified its campaign against AQAP by launching synchronized air and ground assaults in the province of Abyan (south) and Arhab (an area in Lahaj province, also in the south), and in the capital Sanaa.

Following these raids, news spread that the strike in Abyan – which took place in the region of Maajala in the district of Al Mahfad – killed a number of al-Qaeda's key figures including their leader in the Gulf, Nasser al-Wahishi (Abu Basir). Al-Wahishi assumed leadership of the organisation after the merging of the two branches of al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia and Yemen in January 2009. But al-Qaeda only acknowledged the deaths of an estimated 50 people in the attack of Abyan without confirming or denying Al-Wahishi's death or that of his first assistant, the Saudi national, Said Ali al-Shihri who is also believed to have died in the same attack.

To this day, the fate of Al-Wahishi and al-Shirhi is shrouded in mystery since there have been no recent statements from them. The two leaders have not appeared in any video or released any recorded messages. Yemeni authorities don't seem to be certain of their deaths.

On the other hand, the Arhab operation, which received less media coverage compared with the Abyan operation, proved to be as important strategically. Based on the remarks of Yemeni officials, the Arhab operation targeted three al-Qaeda suspected sites where members of the group were planning attacks against Western interests – including the British embassy in Sanaa.

This operation led to the killing of many al-Qaeda members, according to official Yemeni sources. Among the dead was Hani Shaalan, a former Guantanamo detainee released by the US government. But the operation seems to have missed its main target, Qassem al-Rimi, a military leader of al-Qaeda in the Gulf and one of the 23 members of the organisation who succeeded in escaping from the Yemeni intelligence services' prison in Sanaa in February 2006, a controversial incident that embarrassed the Yemeni government.

Even though al-Rimi survived the operation in Arhab, it became clear that the Yemeni government was determined to pursue and kill him. On January 15th an air strike targeted two cars in a desert region between Saada and al-Jawf. Yemeni officials confirmed that the attack killed al-Rimi and five other al-Qaeda leaders and militants. Among those targeted was the "theorist" of the organization in Yemen, Abu Ayman al-Masri, in addition to Amar al-Waeli, Aayed al-Chabwani (also known as the "Prince of al-Qaeda" in the province of Marib), and Saleh al-Teys.

But as soon as Yemeni officials announced the death of these six key al-Qaeda members, the organisation rushed to deny these reports, hinting that they were only wounded. Al-Qaeda issued a statement toward accusing the Yemeni government of "false claims" with regard to "the success of its joint operations with the Americans against the leadership of the Mujahidin in the Arabian peninsula. The latest of these claims is that they killed six leaders between the two provinces of al-Jawf and Saada in the Ajacher region".

The announcement, published on websites that regularly post statements from al-Qaeda, said, "We want to assure the Muslim Nation that no Mujahidin were killed in this treacherous attack, but some were slightly wounded. Just as the Yemeni government lied about the number of al-Qaeda killed in its previous attacks, it is also lying about the names it announces to justify the last unsuccessful raid."

Despite the announcement, Al-Rimi has not been heard from since the attacks and has not signed any press releases to confirm he was "lightly injured".

Whether or not the Yemeni government killed these six key figures, or wounded them as al-Qaeda claims, one thing is clear: the Yemeni government's uninterrupted attacks – with the probable assistance of foreign intelligence services – have destabilized the group. AQAP seems unable to strike back.

All this suggests that al-Qaeda is desperately in need of some time to catch its breath and reorganize its chain of command by appointing new leaders to take over for those who were killed or injured.

The Yemeni government is taking the threat of a vengeful attack very seriously. Tough security measures were taken in recent days in preparation for the possibility of attacks by the organisation. Yemeni security forces are aware that al-Qaeda needs to carry out an attack of any kind that proves that it was not weakened by the government's raids and demonstrates that it is capable of executing new attacks.

What is not clear is whether al-Qaeda will concentrate its attacks on the Yemeni government and its institutions or on typical Western establishments, or will it be capable of attacking both at the same time? Another question is will al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula accept the offer made by the Somali Al-Shabab movement to reinforce the Yemeni-Saudi Arabian organisation with Islamist Somali support?

The stance of the Salafist Sheikhs

What is interesting about the situation in Yemen is that whatever the government managed to win militarily against al-Qaeda risks being lost to the media internally.

In the past few days a number of Salafist Sheikhs, some of whom were once considered staunch supporters of President Saleh, vehemently criticized the government. The most prominent of those scholars is Sheikh Abdul Majid al-Zandani, a prominent member of the Yemeni Gathering for Reforms and President of Al-Iman University.

Al-Zandani announced in a statement signed by 150 Yemeni scholars that the invitation extended by British Prime Minister Gordon Brown to hold an international summit on Yemen in London (on Wednesday January 27th) is meant to "weaken the security in the country, to threaten its unity and stability, and to violate its sovereignty under false pretences to repeat what happened in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan". The announcement, which was read during a press conference in the presence of al-Zandani in a Sanaa mosque, warned against signing any treaty or military cooperation with any foreign party "that violates Islamic Law and harms the interests of the country".

The scholars threatened to declare a jihad against what they considered an attempt by foreign powers to intervene militarily in Yemen. The warning came despite the fact that no foreign country announced its intention to intervene in any such manner. On the contrary, US President Barack Obama publicly confirmed that he would not be sending troops to Yemen.

The statement issued by al-Zandani and the sheikhs is considered a setback for the government's efforts to rally public support in the fight against al-Qaeda. Soon after the announcement, the pro-government newspaper al-Thawra expressed its resentment of the Sheikh's position in a editorial.

"Why are the Scholars weeping for these terrorists?" the paper asked. "Is it because many of the terrorists came out from under their garbs and were influenced by their fatwas that incited violence, extremism and fanaticism? Did they mean to act as covers for those killers and slaughterers who terrorized and corrupted the land while the scholars were sound asleep and didn't take any stance or make any effort against the criminal acts of these insurrectionist warmongers and seditionists whether they are separatist conspirators or mercenaries thirsty for blood, murder and looting?"

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